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2024-12-14 00:41:06

In the past year or two, the theme of A-shares was foreign investment and RMB appreciation. This concept has been going on until now, including today. However, Tuesday's favorable policy proposed to implement monetary easing, which indicates that the RMB exchange rate is expected to depreciate or begin to depreciate, and the concept of A-shares has been speculated to the end. After all, after several years, few people believe it, and it can only be played by big players themselves. The participation of retail investors is not high, and the big index stocks are at historical highs.First, this is mainly reflected in the current situation of A-shares themselves: it is inseparable from the positive, and the hype foundation of A-shares in the past three years is being weakened.Tuesday's rally is a reaction to the big bull market. When we look back and carefully observe the trend of the 924 market, it is always inseparable from the bull market, especially the protection of the market by favorable policies. Generally, it is not necessary to do this in a normal bull market. With the continuous influx of funds, we can complete the rise and all the necessary distances in the rising process.


The 924 market has been going on for more than two months now, and it has missed the best opportunity to launch the second wave of market. Today, the A-shares are shrinking and rising, and the main players have to come out to maintain the disk. If they don't come out to protect the disk again, the new technology stocks represented by artificial intelligence will be out of control if there is a collective callback.Tuesday's rally is a reaction to the big bull market. When we look back and carefully observe the trend of the 924 market, it is always inseparable from the bull market, especially the protection of the market by favorable policies. Generally, it is not necessary to do this in a normal bull market. With the continuous influx of funds, we can complete the rise and all the necessary distances in the rising process.A-shares have gone out of the upward trend today, but the heat of the market has not improved, and the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. Then why should the main force continue to pull up the market index, whether to start the second wave of market, or to change the size, or to pull up and attract more? On these three questions, I said my own point of view.


If we combine the A50 index with the trend of Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong stocks have hit a new low, and the downward trend is more obvious. From these two indexes, there is no sign of starting a second upswing. If it were not for the support, A shares and these two sisters would have fallen sharply at the same time.Of course, there are still many situations, which are enough to explain the current trend. It is a trend of attracting more people, and I will not list them one by one. My judgment has gone up and down these days, and I keep making mistakes. Maybe it's because I want this wave of market to work normally, so I will adjust it, and it will go up when it goes up, but I just push up the index and go up for the sake of going up. In addition, the trading volume can't be effectively enlarged. Without a new leading plate, I rely on a few big index stocks to control the market. This is ship pulled. Therefore, I am still bearish on tomorrow's A-share market.The volume pile is shrinking, the volume and price deviate, and the market index deviates. The rise at this stage is ship pulled, and now the market fully meets these characteristics.

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